中国最大的难题，不是美国，不是印度...

关注：老刘的心灵鸡汤，每天都能收到这样的好文章！

◆ ◆ ◆

今天给大家讲讲一个十几亿大国复杂的治理难题

1  西方对中国的认识

169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了，把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢，没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想，那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会，你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡，但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人，就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本，并去倾情出演吧！177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者，不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌，也要优雅的谢幕，感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧，见的世面多了，你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧，管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能！“不可能”的意思是：“不，可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的，不管你的境遇如何，你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难，都要继续前进，因为只有你放弃的那一刻，你才输了。     When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mothe凝固的熔岩流。火星上常常有猛烈的大风，大风扬起沙尘能形成可以覆盖火星全球的特大型沙尘暴。每次沙尘暴可持续数个星期。火星两极的冰冠和火星大气中含有水份。从火星表面获得的探测数据证明，在远古时期，火星曾经有过液态的水，而且水量特别大。[51] 土星是离太阳第六颗行星，直径120536㎞，体积仅次于木星。主要由氢组成，还有少量的氦与微量元素，内部的核心包括岩石和冰，外围由数层金属氢和气体包裹着。地球距离土星13亿公里。土星的引力比地球强2.5倍，能够牵引太阳系内其它行星，使地球处于一个椭圆轨道中运行，并且与太阳保持适当距离，适宜生命繁衍。当土星轨道倾斜20度将使地球轨道比金星轨道更接近太阳，同时，这将导致火星完全离开太阳系。[52]  土星是已知唯一密度小于水的行星，假如能够将土星放入一个巨大的浴池之中，它将可以漂浮起来。土星有一个巨大的磁气圈和一个狂风肆虐的大气层，赤道附近的风速可达1800千米/时。在环绕土星运行的31颗卫星中间，土卫六是最大的一颗，比水星和月球还大，也是太阳系中唯一拥有浓厚大气层的卫星。[53] 天王星是离太阳第七颗行星，51118km。体积约为地球的65倍，在九大行星中仅次于木星和土星。天王星的大气层中83%是氢，15%为氦，2%为甲烷以及少量的乙炔和碳氢化合物。上层大气层的甲烷吸收红光，使天王星呈现蓝绿色。大气在固定纬度集结成云层，类似于木星和土星在纬线上鲜艳的条状色带。天王星云层的平均温度为零下193摄氏度。质量为8.6810±13×10²⁵kg，相当于地球质量的14.63倍。密度较小，只有1.24克/立方厘米，为海王星密度值的74.7%。[54] 恒星 恒星 海王星是离太阳的第八颗行星，直径49532千米。海王星绕太阳运转的轨道半径为45亿千米，公转一周需要165年。海王星的直径和天王星类似，质量比天王星略大一些。海王星和天王星的主要大气成分都是氢和氦，内部结构也极为相近，所以说海王星与天王星是一对孪生兄弟。[55]  海王星有太阳系最强烈的风，测量到的时速高达2100公里。海王星云顶的温度是－218 °C，是太阳系最冷的地区之一。海王星核心的温度约为7000 °C，可以和太阳的表面比较。海王星在1846年9月23日被发现，是唯一利用数学预测而非有计划的观测发现的行星。[56] 冥王星，位于海王星以外的柯伊伯带内侧，是柯伊伯带中已知的最大天体。[57]  直径约为2370±20km，是地球直径的18.5%。[58]  2006年8月24日，国际天文学联合会大会24日投票决定，不再将传统九大行星之一的冥王星视为行星，而将其列入“矮行星”。大会通过的决议规定，“行星”指的是围绕太阳运转、自身引力足以克服其刚体力而使天体呈圆球状、能够清除其轨道附近其他物体的天体。在太阳系传统的“九大行星”中，只有水星、金星、地球、火星、木星、土星、天王星和海王星符合这些要求。冥王星由于其轨道与海王星的轨道相交，不符合新的行星定义，因此被自动降级为“矮行星”。[59]  冥王星的表面温度大概在-238到-228℃之间。冥王星的成份由70%岩石和30%冰水混合而成的。地表上光亮的部分可能覆盖着一些固体氮以及少量 卫星拍月球经过地球，可见清晰月球背面 卫星拍月球经过地球，可见清晰月球背面 [60] 的固体甲烷和一氧化碳，冥王星表面的黑暗部分可能是一些基本的有机物质或是由宇宙射线引发的光化学反应。冥王星的大气层主要由氮和少量的一氧化碳及甲烷组成。大气极其稀薄，地面压强只有少量微帕。[61] 地球是离太阳第三颗行星，是我们人类的家乡，尽管地球是太阳系中一颗普通的行星，但它在许多方面都是独一无二的。比如，它是太阳系中唯一一颗面积大部分被水覆盖的行星，也是目前所知唯一一颗有生命存在的星球。质量M=5.9742 ×10^24 公斤，表面温度：t = - 30 ～ +45。[62]  英国科研人员在《天体生物学》杂志上报告说，如果没有小行星撞击等可能剧烈改变环境的事件发生，地球适宜人类居住的时间还剩约17.5亿年，不过人为造成的气候变化可能缩短这一时间。[63] 彗星是由灰尘和冰块组成的太阳系中的一类小天体，绕日运动。[64]  科学家使用探测器对彗星的化学遗留物进行分析，发现其主要成份为氨、甲烷、硫化氢、氰化氢和甲醛。科学家得出结论称，彗星的气味闻起来像是臭鸡蛋、马尿、酒精和苦杏仁的气味综合。[65-66] “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 [67] 在太阳系的周围还包裹着一个庞大的“奥尔特云”。星云内分布着不计其数的冰块、雪团和碎石。其中的某些会受太阳引力影响飞入内太阳系，这学说，在原有的轨道（或称小天体轨道）上又增加了更多的天体运行轨道。这一模式称每颗行星都沿着一个小轨道作圆周运行，而小轨道又沿着该行星的大轨道绕地球作圆周运动。几百年之后，这一模式的漏洞越来越明显。科学家们又在这个模式上增加了许多轨道，行星就这样沿着一道又一道的轨道作圆周运动。哥白尼想用“现代”（16世纪的）技术来改进托勒密的测量结果，以期取消一些小轨道。在长达近20年的时间里，哥白尼不辞辛劳日夜测量行星的位置，但其测量获得的结果仍然与托勒密的天体运行模式没有多少差别。哥白尼想知道在另一个运行着的行星上观察这些行星的运行情况会是什么样的。基于这种设想，哥白尼萌发了一个念头：假如地球在运行中，那么这些行星的运行看上去会是什么情况呢？这一设想在他脑海里变得清晰起来了。一年里，哥白尼在不同的时间、不同的距离从地球上观察行星，每一个行星的情况都不相同，这是他意识到地球不可能位于星星轨道的中心。经过20年的观测，哥白尼发现唯独太阳的周年变化不明显。这意味着地球和太阳的距离始终没有改变。如果地球不是宇宙的中心，那么宇宙的中心就是太阳。的发现才使牛顿有能力确定运动定律和万有引力定律。哥白尼的日心宇宙体系既然是时代的产物，它就不能不受到时代的限制。反对神学的不彻底性，同时表现在哥白尼的某些观点上，他的体系是存在缺陷的。哥白尼所指的宇宙是局限在一个小的范围内的，具体来说，他的宇宙结构就是今天我们所熟知的太阳系，即以太阳为中心的天体系统。宇宙既然有它的中心，就必须有它的边界，哥白尼虽然否定了托勒玫的“九重天”，但他却保留了一层恒星天，尽管他回避了宇宙是否有限这个问题，但实际上他是相信恒星天球是宇宙的“外壳”，他仍然相信天体只能按照所谓完美的圆形轨道运动，所以哥白尼的宇宙体系，仍然包含着不动的中心天体。但是作为近代自然科学的奠基人，哥白尼的历史功绩是伟大的。确认地球不是宇宙的中心，而是行星之一，从而掀起了一场天文学上根本性的革命，是人类探求客观真理道路上的里程碑。哥白尼的伟大成就，不仅铺平了通向近代天文学的道路，而且开创了整个自然界科学向前迈进的新时代。从哥白尼时代起，脱离教会束缚的自然科学和哲学开始获得飞跃的发展。哥白尼的科学成就，是他所处时代的产物，又转过来推动了时代的发展。顺应时代变化 十五、六世纪的欧洲，正是从封建社会向资本主义社会转变的关键时期，在这一二百年间，社会发生了巨大的变化。14世纪ndali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧，见的世面多了，你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧，管它会怎样。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力，才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车，只有不断前进，才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心，最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉，并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用，就是让你快乐加倍，痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时，整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years

默克尔在华中科技大学演讲（来源：荆楚网）

德国总理默克尔曾在华中科技大学发表演讲说道：中国必须承担更多的国际责任，包括人权、贸易、科技、气候等等。

默克尔同时提出，鉴于中国在许多领域已经领先，我们总有一天不得不讨论这个问题：中国是否还能继续算做发展中国家。

默克尔这番话是意味深长的。

大家知道默克尔这番讲话的大背景吗？是德国经济面临严重的衰退，默克尔带着一大票德国企业家来中国谈经济合作的。说白一点，在这个特殊的时期，德国是有求于中国的。但是偏偏在有求于中国的节骨眼上，默克尔却发表了这么一番对中国含蓄批评的演讲，是不同寻常的。

默克尔这番话其实代表了西方社会从精英阶层到普通民众对中国的统一认识：中国人你们已经很富裕了，你们不该还算作发展中国家！你们必须承担更多的国际责任。

西方社会对中国的这个认识正确吗？

如果我们不带任何偏见，站在西方社会普通民众的立场，这个认识好像也没错。

在西方民众眼里，中国是这样的国家——列举一组消费数据：

美国每年购买1400万台汽车，中国是2800万台；

中国人每年消费全球智能手机50%；

中国人每年消费全球奢侈品的60%；

星巴克最大的市场不在美国，而在中国；

中国空调渗透率高达60%，比欧洲还高，与美国相当；

中国人均居住面积36平米，在欧洲也能排名前5，自有房率远远超过欧洲；

中国人每年出国人数是1.3亿人次，相当于德国与法国人口总数，出境的中国人狂扫各国商场，在奢侈品商店排成长队买白菜一样买价格不菲的包包手表。

这些数据都是真实的，做不得假的。

所以，西方社会才有前面共识，才有默克尔含蓄的批评。

大家不要小看西方社会这个共识，这种普遍的共识很容易造成对中国很坏的观感，最后直接让西方国家对华政策产生很不利的影响。

那么，西方社会的这个认识正确吗？

我可以负责的说一句：这个认识是不正确的。他们看到的只是冰山的一角。

2  中国的社会阶层结构

中国地域广阔，经济发展很不平衡。如果从人群的角度，中国的社会阶层大致是一个“工”字形结构。

最上面那个“一”有4亿人，主要居住在一二线大城市，他们属于中国的中产阶级，他们有车有房，他们创造了中国中高端商品的消费奇迹——包括全球占比超过60%的奢侈品消费，全球占比超过50%的汽车消费，以及中国中高端住房消费。这个人群分享了改革开放、城市化进程大部分红利，同时也承担了向农村与落后地区转移支付的义务。

西方社会看到的消费数据，就是这群人创造的。

中间那一竖有1亿人，主要居住在2、3线城市，他们收入介于中产与底层老百姓之间，努力一下就可能达到中产了，松懈一下就滑到底层阶层。

最下面那“一”有9亿人，主要居住在农村、乡镇以及小县城。他们收入不高，但是在社会主义制度下温饱能解决，他们由于地区差异以及城乡差异很难分享到经济高速发展的红利，不过却能享受国家扶贫与转移支付的政策红利。

我们国家就是这样复杂的社会结构，上面的那4亿人已经基本摸到发达国家的门槛，而下面的那9亿人还处于发展中国家水平，中间还有1亿人拼命向上爬。

庞大的人口基数，复杂的社会结构，不同人群的利益诉求冲突造成了国家治理的难题。

我们国家把自己定位为发展中国家，主要就是为下面这9亿人考虑的。

样给大家列举一组消费数据，大家与上面那4亿人比较一下：

这9亿人一辈子没用过马桶；

没坐过飞机；

他们人均每月可支配收入只有400多元，

有近6亿人不会或者从未上过网；

我们的网络舆论场基本是上面那4亿人的声音，而下面那9亿人属于沉默的大多数。

我们国家与政府顶着巨大的国际压力，坚持发展中国家定位不动摇，就是为这部分沉默的9亿人考虑——把国家的资源更多的留在国内，留给我们的困难群众，而不是去承担更大的国际责任，赢得西方社会的赞许。

按：按照目前的国际经济体系，发展中国家与发达国家待遇是有很大区别的，包括发展中国家在世界银行、国际货币基金组织贷款可以获得优惠利率，国际贸易可以获得关税优惠，国际邮费有补贴。

总而言之一句话，承担更小的责任，得到更多的权利。

3  中国执政党的诚意

过去总有一票公知造谣，说我们国家对外巨额援助，而不顾自己贫困人民，这类谣言配合亚非拉各种关于中国新闻的曲解非常蛊惑人心。

事实却恰恰相反。

我们这个国家是对普通老百姓最友好的国家；我们执政党是对普通老百姓最有诚意的政党。

为什么？

看看我们做的扶贫攻坚战，从行政、商界、金融、教育、医疗等等各种层面向贫困人群全面投放资源。

在贫困地区建桥修路，给贫困人群通电通水通网络，危房给钱改造，医疗贴钱补贴，教育各种绿色通道，执政党的干部还一个村一个村住进去，各种想办法给贫困人群找工作找项目。

不谈这个过程投入的人力物力精力，就直接按金额计算，这几年对贫困人群直接间接投入十万亿怎么都有了吧。

大家知道这十万亿意味着什么吗？

这些都是沉没成本！

讲句政治不正确的话——对贫困人群的投资绝大多数都是沉没的成本！

从经济效益的角度，对贫困人群的投资不仅效率极低，而且几乎不大可能产生合理的收益——从做蛋糕的角度，这么大的资源如果投放给这个“工字型”社会结构上面那个“一”其产出效益将远远大于直接投放给下面那个“一”。

假如你是执政者，你会做何选择？全球99%的国家选择的都是把资源投放给上面那个“一”，而金字塔底部的底层人群则成了被遗忘的角落。

以西方国家的福利制度为例，同样是福利，投放给孩子的效率远远高于投放给老人，所以，在西方发达国家，养育孩子能获得更多的国家福利。

比如日本最近就宣布了一个政策，孩子从幼儿园到小学、中学全免费，在家带孩子的每月还可以拿到相当于1000多元人民币的“工资”，这些都是政府财政买单——代价是全民消费税提高2%。

这项福利立刻引发了中国舆论场的热议。但是另外有一则新闻却被大众忽略了。

你看看，日本政府就是这么现实——多养孩子对经济是有很大好处的，所以，各种福利鼓励（欧洲国家也是如此），但是资源投放给老人就是“沉没成本”，所以，退养金各种削减。

说起来中国人均GDP还不到1万美元，我们的老人的退休年龄是60岁，这个年龄与一票人均GDP几倍于我们的发达国家相比竟然是最低的！

美国退休年龄是67岁，目前是鼓励延迟到70岁退休；

瑞士的退休年龄是65岁，计划延迟到67岁；

日本是70岁，计划延迟到75岁；

德国是67岁；

英国是65岁；

我们不但退休年龄最低，而且养老金实现了17年连续提高！虽然我们因为财政的巨大压力也在酝酿延迟退休方案，但是不管最后方案怎么样，我们的退休年龄一定全球最低的。

以上还是一票发达国家，至于发展中国家，大家可以去看看这票国家在贫民窟挣扎生存的贫民的凄惨生活，这些人群一辈子都看不到任何希望。

啥是执政的诚意？

愿意把资源不计回报沉淀给弱势人群就是最大的执政诚意！

为什么全球只有中国共产党才能对老百姓表现出执政的诚意？

因为这个政党从成立之初就是为老百姓利益而奋斗的。

这里给大家插播一段国际共运党课。

首先提出一个问题——西方发达国家老百姓的福利是怎么来的？

是资本家主动施舍的吗？

不是！

是国际共产主义运动争取来的。是共产党领着老百姓通过不屈不挠的斗争争取来的。

往前追溯100年历史，我们可以看到一条清晰的脉络——当国际共运蓬勃发展的时候，西方国家老百姓收入水平（含福利）就提高得很快；当国际共运处于低潮的时候，西方国家老百姓收入水平就急剧下降。

在没有共产党之前，现在的人是很难想象那时工人与城市市民是啥生活。

引用一段恩格斯《英国工人阶级的现状的描述》：

在住宅方面，城市的贫民窟杂乱无章、破烂不堪，空气污浊，通风、排水、卫生状况恶劣。许多人住的是阴暗潮湿的房屋，不是下面冒水的地下室，就是上面漏雨的阁楼。住宅非常拥挤，每一个角落都塞满了人，病人和健康人睡在一间屋子里，睡在一张床上。甚至屋子里都不具备栖身的条件，家具破损不堪，往往一下雨就漏水。房屋内外，其肮脏程度难以形容。

在穿衣方面，工人们穿的衣服是坏的、破烂的或不结实的，他们没有保暖的衣服。大多数人的衣服本来就不好，还得常常把比较好的衣服送到当铺里去。许多工人特别是爱尔兰人的衣服简直就是一些破布，往往连再打一个补丁的地方都没有了。

在饮食方面，工人们吃的食物是劣质的、掺假的和难消化的。许多工人只能靠土豆充饥，而且土豆多半是质量很差的，干酪是质量很坏的陈货，猪板油是发臭的。有些人甚至食用已经半腐烂的病畜或死畜的肉。商人和厂主昧着良心在食品里掺假，如糖里掺米粉、咖咖粉里掺菊芭、可可里掺有捣得很细的褐色粘土、酒精里加上颜料冒充红葡萄酒，等等。

大家看看，堂堂大英帝国，19世纪全球最强大的日不落帝国，其工人阶级过的却是猪狗不如的生活。

所以，19世纪后期，整个欧洲才有了“一个幽灵，一个共产主义幽灵在欧洲游荡”。

当第一个共产党政权成立后，整个世界的格局，工人阶级的社会地位开始发生根本性变化。

1918年布尔什维克夺取俄国政权。

1920年美国立法给予妇女投票权。

你觉得这是巧合吗？

1946年丘吉尔发表铁幕演说，东西方不同意识形态两大阵营开始对立。

从此之后，西方国家老百姓收入水平开始急剧提高；西方福利社会恰恰开始于二战之后；

你觉得这是巧合吗？

70年代，苏联在全球如日中天，冷战主战场越南美国全面溃退，国际共运达到高潮；

70年代，美国中产阶级人数急剧增长，占总人口比例达到61%；

你觉得这是巧合吗？

80年代初期，在苏联推动下，亚非拉地区掀起一轮新的共运浪潮；

80年代初期，美国中产阶级人数达到顶峰，占人口总比例接近80%。80年代也是美国老百姓生活水平最高的时期；

你觉得这是巧合吗？

91年苏联解体，红旗落地。

90年代美国老百姓收入增长开始变缓，到90年代末期陷入停滞；1999年美国GDP是10万亿美元，当时美国家庭中位数收入是5.7万美元，到了2015年，美国GDP是18万亿美元，但是美国家庭中位数收入却不增反减才5.6万美元！

你觉得这是巧合吗？

在国际共运发展到顶峰的80年代初期，美国中产阶级人数占人口总比例接近80%，但是在苏联解体二十几年后的2015年，美国中产阶级人口占人口总比锐减到49%。

你觉得这是巧合吗？

为什么过去100年历史中西方社会对共产党与社会主义如此敌视？

原因就是，只要共产主义的红旗不倒，资本就不敢为所欲为。

当共产党的存在就可以间接让西方国家被迫提高老百姓福利的时候，你有什么理由怀疑这个政党执政的诚意？

小时候看老电影，有句台词印象很深刻——“共产党才是穷人的大救星”，年龄越大，回头再看这句台词真的是感慨万千。

现在的国际形势大的格局还是敌强我弱的局面，舆论的话语权还被西方媒体所控制。我们的执政党被西方媒体各种妖魔化抹黑。

所以，一定要建一个那啥把境外有害的信息阻挡在外面，不这样做，现在大陆每一个城市都会变成今天的香港！

4  我国面临的治理难题

讲了这么多其实就是一个主题，我们这个国家是对普通老百姓最友好的国家；我们执政党是对普通老百姓最有诚意的政党。理解这个主题，我们再来看看这个国家面临的巨大的治理难题。

中国有十几亿人口，经济发展不平衡，导致我们现在是一个“工字型”的社会结构，不同的社会阶层有不同的利益诉求，一旦特定阶层的利益诉求没有得到满足，很多人就闹骚满腹，对国家对执政党有很大的怨气。

去年某大V有篇文章轰动一时，大致是描述作为中产阶级对国家的各种不满意。撇开文章中的各种常识错误不论，这篇文章其实就是代表“工字型”上面那个“一”发声的。

文章中通篇都是，我的诉求是什么，国家应该怎么做——反正只要国家没有满足这个阶层利益诉求的政策都是错的。

中产阶级是改革开放40年经济红利最大的获得者，如果这个阶级都还对国家不满意，希望从国家获得更多的经济红利分配权，那么，底层人均每月可支配收入只有400多的9亿人还活不活？

中国不是欧洲！

发达地区不能如同西欧一样无条件享受东欧落后地区廉价劳动力、享受商品向落后地区倾销的便利，而不承担对落后地区扶贫的责任！

平衡不同阶层巨大的利益冲突是社会治理的第一个难题。

按：我们的中产阶级看问题的格局要高一点，不要老是惦记那点对贫困地区的转移支付。

大家想一想，中央财政有钱了才能大幅度提高基础民生的保障，才能大幅度提高国防预算。为什么这几年我们的军舰像下饺子一样生产？为什么我们拼命也要搞出自己的五代机？

上个世纪60年代我们搞出自己的原子弹这个国家已经不可能被外敌入侵，我们现在拼命提高国防预算不就是为了保护我们的中产阶级去泰国、去埃及、去欧洲旅游的时候不被欺负，保护我们的中产阶级去缅甸、去越南、去非洲投资的时候不被侵害吗？

下面我们再来看看现代法治社会依法治国的巨大难题。

依法治国首先得有法律。我们国家是4重法治体系。宪法是最高大法，其次是人大制定的法律，第三层是国务院制定的法规，第四层是地方政府制定的法规。

理论上讲，宪法最高，上一层法律大于下一层，下一层法律与上一层有冲突的时候就应该修改。但是问题没有这么简单。

以人大制定法律为例。

现在我们知道，中国是一个“工字型”社会结构，不同阶层人群差距很大。那么，问题来了，人大应该立足哪个人群来制定法律呢？

假如立足于工字型上面那个“一”，我们的法律应该更接近欧洲；假如立足于工字型下面那个“一”，我们的法律就更接近于非洲。

欧洲社会治理与非洲的社会治理完全就是两回事，这两者差距极大，相互兼容难度很大。所以，最后我们的法律往往具有这样的特征：法律条款弹性很大、法律标准模糊、口袋条款多。

为什么会有这样的特征？

原因很简单，只要是全国统一的法律最后多半就是一个指导性原则，其落地性是很差的，落地只能靠各地的执法者依据具体的情况来实施，所以，法律条款弹性大其实就是赋予执法者以较多的自由裁量权。

这个自由裁量权是最被人诟病的，首先自由裁量权过大确实容易滋生腐败，其次，由于不同地区经济发展的不平衡，这个自由裁量权也容易导致同样的案例不同地区执法判决大相径庭。

为什么我们法律界最容易出公知，原因就在这里。

我们法律界的公知或者是律师，或者是大学教授，首先从阶层来看就属于工字型上面那个“一”，从中产阶级的角度来看，我们的法律制定是比较滞后的（因为要照顾下面那个“一”），然后在具体的司法实践中，一些落后的地方竟然对这些“滞后的法律”执行都有问题，司法部分往往会放大了自己的自由裁量权，这就被公知律师描述为典型的“人治”。

那么，怎么解决这个自由裁量权呢？

公知的药方是搞西方那套制度，搞选票政治、地方自治。如同美国一样，每个州每个县都可以依据当地具体情况独立制定自己的法律。

听上去很美好是不是？

但是这个药方是有重大问题的。由于中国存在巨大的地区差异，没有一个强大的中央政府来平衡不同地区的利益诉求——通过强制性的转移支付来平衡地区差异，地方权力扩张的后果就是分裂。

分裂必然产生巨大的冲突，不仅会导致生产力下降，而且对普通老百姓就是一场灾难。

宁为太平犬，不做乱世人！

1991年苏联解体，分裂出去的东欧一票国家迅速成为西欧的经济殖民地，自主产业全面溃败，生活水平严重下滑，男人变成西欧的农民工，女人变成西欧的妓女，乌克兰竟然落了一个“欧洲子宫”的称号。

苏联解体后落寞的普通苏联人民

就算是大致保持完整的俄罗斯，由于社会动荡经济停滞，老百姓生活水平急剧下降，从1991年——1999年俄罗斯人口死亡率一路飙升。

有学者统计，这十年俄罗斯死亡的人数与苏联解体前正常死亡率相比整整多了500万。俄罗斯总人口才1亿3000万，500万除以这个分母就是4%，如果中国解体，按照14亿总人口计算，就要有5000万人为这个分裂付出生命的代价。

这就是我坚决反对公知那套药方，坚决反对西方那套制度的根本原因。

5  伟大的目标

回到之前的主题，中国的社会治理主要还是不同社会阶层差距太大，城市人口有8亿，农村人口有6亿；城市人口仅有4亿达到中产阶层，另外还有1亿人拼命向上爬，下面有9亿人很难分享经济发展的红利。

巨大的阶层鸿沟，复杂的利益冲突，对执政者是一个巨大的挑战。

怎么办？

归根结底还是要不断发展生产力水平。通过产业升级，在全球经济体系中拿到更多的红利，同时给社会能提供更多的就业岗位，然后不断提高城市化率，转移更多的农村人口进入城市。

如果城市人口能达到10亿人，其中70%能达到中产阶层，社会治理就会轻松很多，如果城市人口能达到12亿，同样其中70%能达到中产阶层，我们就成为一个富强文明的社会主义强国。

而以上正是19大报告规划的2035年与2050年两步走的目标。

时逢建国70周年之际，让我们一起祝福共和国明天会更好，一起为美好的明天努力奋斗吧。

................................................................................

  推 荐 阅 读： 

................................................................................

｜老刘的心灵鸡汤

 

1607 期

 公众号：xinlingjitangliu  识别图中二维码，一键关注。

................................................................................

  声明    图文编辑综合自：网络，版权属原作者， 如有侵权告知立删！

................................................................................

点击“阅读原文”查看《更多精彩》